1)  Sign Manny.  This team might need 4-5 years to grow into the type of team that can win World Series’.  Give it to him. If Manny can hit .330 when he’s 36, he’ll be just fine when he’s 40.  As for his attitude problem, deal with it.  He likes L.A. better than Boston, he’ll be less trouble.  He’s a handful, but he’s a problem worth putting up with.

2)  Get to work on Andruw Jones NOW.  You’re paying $15 million for him next year regardless of what he does.  However, if he manages to come back and put up numbers he did earlier in his career, great.  A typical season for him before his utter collapse was.260-.270 with 30-40 homers.  This is the cleanup hitter they are missing, and would finally give Manny some protection.

3)  Resign Derek Lowe.  If you don’t sign Manny, get C.C. Sabathia, and Lowe isn’t so important.  However, everyone loves Manny, so Manny is the top priority.  The Dodgers must have a vet like Lowe to balance out the rotation while guys like Billingsley and Kershaw mature.

4) Cross your fingers that Jason Schmidt makes it out of the minors next year.

5) Resign Rafael Furcal if the money is right.  I get the feeling he’s going to want more than the Dodgers are willing to pay.  He’s a great player, and a great shortstop.  His back surgery doesn’t seem to have slowed him down.  The Dodgers have Ivan DeJesus waiting in the wings, but he could probably use a couple more years in the minors.  If they go with DeJesus, the team gets even younger, which isn’t necessarily a good thing.

6) Assuming he doesn’t retire, do not sign Jeff Kent.  You need to free up that money for someone else.

7) Do not sign Nomar unless he signs for a lot less money in a utility infielder capacity.  He was great in his role this year, but it wasn’t anywhere near worth $8 million.

8) Exercise Brad Penny’s option.  Who knows what he’s going to throwing like next year, and the money is needed elsewhere.

9) Trade Juan Pierre.  You might be able to get an ok 3rd baseman or a 5th starter for him.  He’s making too much to ride the bench, and that’s all he’ll do next year, especially if Manny is back.

10) Casey Blake, Angel Berroa, Takashi Saito, Scott Proctor, Mark Sweeney, and Pablo Ozuna can all move on.

11) Sign Joe Beimel

12) Exercise Gary Bennett’s option.  There are plenty of guys who can play third-string catcher, why deal with one that can’t throw back to the mound?

The lineup will just about be set.  The ultimate best case scenario would be if Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier could be converted to 3rd base.  This probably won’t happen, so I would say they’re going to need to trade Juan Pierre for a 3rd baseman, as I don’t see Casey Blake returning.  I’m guessing that Ethier and Kemp will platoon in right, until it becomes clear that Andruw Jones is done for his career.  If Jones comes back, all the better, and Kemp and Ethier will just have to eat a little crow until 2010 when Jones is gone.  I vote for Blake DeWitt to start at 2nd.  Everyone else stays where they’re at.

Ideal rotation:  1)Billingsley 2)Lowe 3)Kuroda 4)Schmidt 5)Kershaw/McDonald

Schmidt is probably a little over optimistic, but it would work out in a number of ways.  Clayton Kershaw still needs to be worked up to a major league workload, and McDonald will need to get some starts.  So, splitting the two 28/6 would work well, and McDonald could fill in as long/middle relief the rest of the season.

Possible rotation:  1) Sabathia 2)Billingsley 3)Kuroda 4)Schmidt 5)Kershaw
While we’re getting crazy, how about:  1)Sabathia, 2)Billingsley 3)Lowe 4)Kuroda 5)Kershaw

Likely rotation:  who knows?  I’m seeing a platoon effort in the #5 spot, maybe between McDonald and Stults?  I don’t know.  I don’t think they’re going to have a true #5 guy, but they’ll have plenty of guys that they can rotate into that spot.

The main thing about next season is sticking with the young core of the team.  On offense that is Russell Martin, James Loney, Blake DeWitt, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp.  Pitching  staff, that is Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade, Jonathan Broxton, and hopefully James McDonald.

No game analysis necessary, they just got beat. Here’s a little series analysis:

Manny Ramirez and James Loney carried the offense, and neither had one at-bat in the number 4 spot.

Russell Martin and Blake DeWitt choked the worst.  They’re young guys.  Blake DeWitt is a rookie, and he wasn’t even supposed to make the team this year, so it’s understandable that the pressure in the Championship Series was a bit much for him.  Martin is in his third year, and he’s a 2-time All-star.  It’s time for him to step it up.  Learn from these things, and take it to the next level in 2009.

Billingsley was a black spot on an otherwise stellar post-season pitching staff.  This year was his first full season as a starter, so you have to give him a break.  Learn from your losses and mistakes.  Don’t let them get into your head, and come back next year more prepared.

The brightest spot in my opinion:  James McDonald pitched 5 1/3 innings, allowing zero runs.  In fact, he didn’t allow a run all season (in 11 1/3 innings).  He showed some great stuff, and a lot of poise under pressure.  His location needs work, but I would love to see him with the Dodgers again sometime next year.

Overall this is a very young team.  They will be better next year.  The reason this season was exciting is because the team is young.  Let’s keep these guys together and watch them grow into champions.

Oh, and for the love of God, Joe, please stop hitting Russell Martin cleanup.

1)  GREAT LINEUP

2)  WAY TO CONTINUE YOUR REPUTATION FOR KNOWING WHEN TO CHANGE PITCHERS

1) Why is Russel Martin hitting cleanup?  Seriously, what would lead a person to believe that a guy with a .396 slugging percentage should hit cleanup?  And what is Blake DeWitt doing hitting 6th?  I like Blake DeWitt, but SIXTH?!?!  He’s the worst hitter in the lineup!!!!!  Combined they went 0-for-8 in their completely unnatural spots, and left THIRTEEN runners on base. THIRTEEN!!!  7-5? 7-5?!  It should have been more like 11-7! THANKS A LOT!

2) Hong-Chih Kuo annihilates the Phillies, strikes out 2, gives up a grounder up the middle, and you lift him? WHY?!  He was pitching well, why would you take him out the game, right after you left him in to hit?  What sense does that make?  I don’t get it at all.  I would understand if one of the following things happened:

• You had pinch hit for him, and had to take him out
• He was pitching poorly
• He was tired
• He had thrown too many pitches and you were worried about his arm

NONE OF THESE APPLY, therefore we must conclude that there is NO logic which can explain why a manager would take this guy out in this situation.  The guys you inexplicably brought in promptly blew the game, so we must conclude that you, Joe Torre, are at fault.

But it isn’t ALL Torre’s fault.  The Dodgers offense did a great job of choking tonight with guys on base.  How many times do you need guys on 2nd and 3rd, or the bases loaded to score runs?  Apparently every inning!  You can’t win games if you don’t win them.  I sat through a whole game of Phillies coming through in the clutch, and guys in blue not doing squat. 

How are you going to win 3 straight when you haven’t won in Phily all year?! 

the keys:

Dodgers must score 5 or more runs: mission accomplished.

Furcal and Blake are key hitters:  3-for-7 combined with 2 walks, 3 runs and 2 RBIs

First 4 spots get on, last 5 must hit them in:  First 4 were 4-for-12 with 4 walks, Martin got hit twice, and they had 6 runs and 2 RBIs.  The bottom of the order FINALLY hit.  6-for-19 with 5 RBIs.

Kemp and Loney will do their part.  Kemp was 2-for-4, Loney didn’t start.  Garciaparra went 2-for-3 in Loney’s place.

Yet another wacky lineup by Joe Torre that falls flat on it’s face if Blake DeWitt doesn’t hit a triple with the bases loaded.  Why on Earth Russell Martin is ever in the #4 spot is something I will never fathom.  I HATE Russell Martin in the 4 spot. Russell Martin is NOT, and never will be, EVER, a #4 hitter.  He knocked in ZERO runs, and only scored once despite being on base 3 times.  Great stats for a cleanup hitter.  If I sound bitter, it’s because I’m blogging in the middle of game 4, the Dodgers are losing 7-5, and tonight’s lineup is even wackier.

Lets do my game analysis:

Dodgers must score 5 or more runs.  5 runs.  The premise, of course, assumes that the Dodgers pitching is performing properly.  Obviously 5 runs doesn’t cut it when Billingsley has a meltdown and gives up 8 runs in 2 innings.  However, the fact that the Dodgers managed to score a few runs in Philadelphia is encouraging.  It was also good to see that they didn’t lay down, and continued to battle offensively through the entire game.  Both loses at Philadelphia were tough losses, but the Dodgers played MUCH better this week than earlier in the year when they got crushed.

Furcal and Blake are key hitters.  A combined 2-for-8 with no walks, no RBIs, and 1 run.  That doesn’t cut it.  If these two guys explode on the opposing pitching, and the rest of the lineup plays their usual game, the Dodgers cruise.  We saw it in the 2nd game of the division series, and the Dodgers won 10-3.

First 4 spots get on, last 5 must hit them in.  First 4 were 4-for-17 with 3 walks, 5 runs, and 3 RBIs.  The bottom 5 were 4-for-19 with 4 walks, no runs, and 2 RBIs.  Loney by himself was 2-for-4 with a walk and an RBI.  The bottom four then, were 2-for-15.  Kemp and Blake are choking.  Kent coming in to replace DeWitt was a waste of time, but Joe Torre loves the double-switch.

Kemp and Loney will do their part.  Kemp didn’t, Loney did, and to be honest, Loney is carrying this duo.

The lineup for last night’s game was modified back to a lineup similar to the one Joe Torre used with success against the Padres at the end of the regular season.  It’s not my lineup, I don’t totally agree with it, but it was miles ahead of that mistake he put together on Thursday.

My boy James McDonald came in and shut the Phillies down.  In your 7th inning in the majors, you come into the NLCS with the bases loaded with 2 outs, and strike out Pat Burrell, who is making $14 million a year.  THAT is composure.  If this guy doesn’t earn a spot in the rotation next spring, he needs to at least be on the roster as long relief with the occasional start.  Billingsley, Kershaw, and this kid make an awesome pitching staff foundation in a few years.

Dodgers must score 5 or more runs.  Nope.

Furcal and Blake are the keys to hitting well.  A combined 0-for-8.

“If both players fall flat, the middle of the lineup will do all the
work and will be stranded time and time again, and the Dodgers will
lose 3-1, 4-2, 5-3 every game.”

The first 4 spots will get on base alot, someone has to ht them in. 
First 4 spots were 5-for-15 with 1 walk.  The last 5 spots were
2-for-15 with one walk. 

Kemp and Loney will do their part.  2-for-7 with 1 walk and 1 run.

It’s saying quite a bit that Dodger pitching held the Phillies to 3 runs in Philadelphia.  The Dodgers have to score more than 2 runs there because that is about as good as the Dodger pitching is going to get.

I have to ask, whats up with the funky lineup, Joe?  I don’t get Russell Martin in the 4th spot.  Maybe someone with years of baseball experience and knowledge can explain this one to me.  You need someone to protect your monster of a hitter in the 3rd spot, so who more natural than the guy with the most walks on the team and ******** .396 slugging percentage during the regular season?  Are you planning to walk the Phillies to death?  I GET why Ethier got moved to 2nd in the order.  I don’t agree with it, but I get it.  He didn’t do squat behind Manny, but he’s a maniac in front of him.  Point taken.  But what is this Russel Martin business?  He’s a #2 hitter if I ever saw one.  Good average, good on-base percentage, good gap power, and decent speed.  That’s not the definition of a clean-up hitter.  The only clean-up the Dodgers have is for some reason perpetually stuck in the #3 spot.

HERE IS THE NEW LINEUP, I EXPECT TO SEE IT IN EFFECT DURING THE NEXT GAME:
Furcal, Martin, Ethier, Ramirez, Loney, Blake, DeWitt, Kemp, pitcher. Explanations to follow.

• Furcal.  .352 lifetime obp, approx. 30 sb per year. thats the closest thing this team has to a true leadoff.
• Martin.  .373 lifetime obp, 20 sb per year, .285 average, can move the leadoff over in many ways
• Ethier. great average, great gap power, and some home run power.  Ideal third.  Can drive the first two in with a single or a double a good deal of the time
• Ramirez.  one of the greatest hitters of all time.  contact, gap power, home run power, etc.  It’s all there but speed. He’ll knock everyone in with one swing.
• Loney.  If Ethier can’t get the job done, Loney is the closest the Dodgers have to a #5.  He lacks the power of Casey Blake, but Blake strikes out way too much to put him behind Manny.  He can hit for average, he has good gap power.  He doesnt walk very much, but he doesn’t strike out too terribly often either.  He also lead the team in RBIs.  This means he is the most likely candidate that teams would find threatening enough in the lineup to not intentionally walk Manny every at-bat.
• Blake can knock in runs.  He has enough home run power to hit 25-30 in a season.  The problem is that he strikes a lot, especially with the Dodgers.  Throw him in there, see what happens.  He must be seperated from Kemp because of their strikeouts, and Kemp makes a better number 8, so Blake is more of a #6 by default rather than an ideal #6.  However, I don’t think he is a bad #6 either.
• I would put DeWitt in the 8 spot, but someone needs to seperate Blake and Kemp.  I like DeWitt offensively, he seems to come through with something in the clutch on a regular basis.  However, his numbers are weak when compared with the rest of the lineup, hence he is at the bottom.
• Kemp.  His numbers are great.  He’s a 5-tool guy that still needs a bit of polish.  His drawback is that he strikes out. A LOT.  I like a guy with speed at the bottom of the lineup in case you hit around to the top.  In addition, he’s a power threat in case anyone is on when he gets to the plate.

The Cubs pitching was excellent after the first inning.  It had to break their hearts to finally get backed up by their pitching staff, yet be completely unable to produce a run for 7 innings.  Kuroda was as good as he always is at home.  Wade was a little shaky, he really didn’t have his best stuff.  He threw some pitches that stayed up in the zone that the Cubs clobbered.  Joe Torre brought Broxton in with 2 outs in the 8th, and he just completely shut the Cubs down for the rest of the game.  THIS was the Broxton everyone is looking for to take the reins from Takashi Saito as closer.  It’s not unusual for Broxton to come in a little sloppy with his location, give up a walk and a hit, and get in trouble before tightening things up.  For us fans, it gets a little more exciting than we would like a lot of the time when Broxton takes the mound.  Not so tonight.

There isn’t much of interest to note on the offensive side of things.  Most importantly, the team didn’t need to rely on Manny Ramirez to drive in runs.  James Loney and Russel Martin had all the RBIs.  It was nice to see the core of the organization step up to the plate.  I think all these guys are continuing to mature and improve, and we could really be in for a long stretch of great baseball in L.A. if Ned Colletti and Frank McCourt can manage to keep the team reasonably intact for the foreseeable future.

Now it’s on to the NLCS, and probably the Phillies.  I’m anticipating a knock-down, drag-out 12 round fight.  When those 2 played in L.A., the Dodgers sweep the series.  They went to Philadelphia soon after, and the Phils swept.  Expect more of the same.

Back to my hypothesis…

Once again, pitching is number one in the playoffs, and the Dodgers can compete with anyone in that respect.  This was demonstrated for the second time, with the Dodgers giving up three runs, two of those coming off a rocky appearance from Takashi Saito.  Jonathan Broxton was a little wild, as usual, but managed to shut the Cubs down before the fans got too carried away with dreams of a comeback.

#2, Dodgers win with more than 5 runs.  They scored 10 and won, case closed.

#3, Furcal and Blake will be the difference.  Combined they were 5-for-10 with 4 runs and 3 RBIs.  This was more what I had in mind.

#4, top of the lineup will reach base a lot, and someone must hit them in.  The first four batters were 7-for-18(.389) with 3 walks(.476 OBP) and 5 runs.  The someone hitting them in was actually themselves this time around.  The four combined for 7 RBIs.

#5, Matt Kemp and James Loney will “do their part”.  Not so much this game.  2-for-10 with one run and one RBI.

Here come the Dodgers back to L.A. to wrap things up.  I’m expecting a pitching duel between Harden, who has been on fire for the Cubs, and Hiroki Kuroda, who is phenomenal at home.  The series will not return to Chicago.  The announcers for the game and tv personalities seemed to lend some credence to the idea that the Cubs still have a chance to win the series.  It just shows you how little respect the Dodgers are getting in these playoffs.  They are underestimated and underrated.  They will continue to expose the reality of the situation.

I wasn’t completely right in my last post, but I was pretty close. Let’s recap.

My first point was that the Dodgers pitching was handled and that it was the factor that the Cubs needed to worry about.  Derek Lowe gives up 2 runs in 6 innings, and the bullpen, as usual, shut the game down.  I liked the cameo by Greg Maddux in the ninth to save Takashi Saito’s arm.  I doubt this is the last we see of Maddux late in the game during the playoffs.  The guy is 42 years old, and truth be told, he could probably pitch into his 50′s as a reliever.  I’m not a big fan of his since he killed the Dodgers as a Brave so many times, but I fully recognize that he is maybe the greatest modern starting pitcher.

Second point: Dodgers win if they score more than 5 runs in the game.  The Dodgers scored 7 runs, the Dodgers won.  I rest my case.

Third point: Rafael Furcal and Casey Blake will be the difference for the Dodgers.  Not so much in the first game, but Furcal did score a run, and Blake did have an RBI, so they contributed.

Fourth point: the top of the lineup will reach base a lot, and someone needs to knock them in. (the theory was that it would be Blake on the back end)  The top four spots in the lineup walked 6 times and scored 5 of the Dodgers 7 runs.  Loney in the 5 spot scored the 6th on his grand slam.

Fifth point: Matt Kemp and James Loney will “do their part”.  In the case of Loney, this was a bit of an understatement.

One thing about the Dodger lineup that they don’t get credit for is their power.  And I’m not talking about Manny here.  Everybody from Furcal to Blake has home run power.  It just so happens that guys like Russell Martin, James Loney, and Matt Kemp didn’t hit as many during the regular season as they are capable of.  Kemp is the perfect example, he’s hit some huge shots, but he’s too busy striking out on those 10-15 extra dingers that would have gone out if he’d just gotten the bat on them.  Looking at Loney’s stats, he hit more home runs last year than this year, and he had 250 more at bats this year.  His power is there, as the Cubs now wish they didn’t know.  Hopefully they become better acquainted with the rest of the lineup soon.

On paper the Cubs have a slight edge.  The pitching is very evenly matched.  A lot has been said about how the series will hinge on the Dodgers pitching.  The staff has the best ERA in the NL, they don’t need to fear anyone, and the idea that they do or should is bunk.  The pitching is taken care of, that’s what the CUBS need to worry about.

What it’s going to come down to is whether or not the Dodgers can produce runs.  I don’t remember the statistic, but the Dodgers were something like 55-6 during the regular season when they scored 5 or more runs.  Given that stat, I will say that if the Dodgers can manage to score 5 runs in a game against the Cubs, the Dodgers win.  Anything less than 5, and the Dodgers lose.  That is 90% certain, and that’s a bet you can take to the bank even during a 5 game series. 

So do the Dodgers have it in them?  I’m going to say it comes down to two players, one of which NO ONE has said anything about when it comes to the post season.  The first is Rafael Furcal.  If Furcal hits well, and gets on base in front of Martin, Ramirez, and Ethier, the Dodgers score at least 1 run a game. All 4 of those guys can get on base, a lot.  The worst on base percentage of the four is Andre Ethier at .370.  That means that someone further down the lineup needs to step up to bring in all those guys on base.  #2, Casey Blake.  Not Kemp, not Loney?  They’ll do their part.  Both will drive in runs, but to get to that 5th run, Casey Blake is going to need to shake the slump he’s been in.  This guy can knock the ball out of the park.  With the Dodgers pitching and a couple of properly timed Casey Blake homers, at least 2 games will be out of reach for the Cubs.  If both players fall flat, the middle of the lineup will do all the work and will be stranded time and time again, and the Dodgers will lose 3-1, 4-2, 5-3 every game.

I like Joe Torre’s decision to move Casey Blake to 8th in the order.  I think it is mostly a sign of his confidence in Blake DeWitt, since he is the weakest hitter in the lineup and kept in his usual 7 spot.  However, I would also assume that Torre thinks there will be a lot of guys left on base from the middle of the lineup.  And considering Torre’s propensity for veterans, I believe he wants one at the bottom of the order to pick them up.  I think it’s a gamble worth taking, and I hope it pays off.

So here’s good luck to the Dodgers.  This team is good enough to win it all, despite it’s detractors.  This is the beginning of a new Dodger era.